Counter-intuitive ways to find the latest (and sharpest) needles in the domestic premium travel haystack
Nothing quite gets my blood boiling like transcon costs, considering how prices skyrocketed back when the lockdowns were winding up. I fly this route often and have enjoyed $1,200 round-trip Business Class fares for years. So when fares got up to the $2,500-$4,500 price tag for non-red-eye and 6 a.m. flights, I started getting my blood pressure tested regularly because award space was ridiculously high as well.
As we suggested in our Annual Crystal Ball Report, the scene is starting to change for the better.
Bad News Recap
In June last year New York-Los Angeles fares jumped from the $1,078-$2,296 range to the $1,848-$3,426 range. Then in March, fares started to drop a bit to the $1,798 to $3,408 range.
Some Changes for the Good
American Airlines
New York to/from Los Angeles — has dropped up to 33%: Typically, fares through the end of April start in the $1,898 range, with a handful of days as low as $1,489 (down from $1,798) and as high as $2,298 (down from $3,426).
New York to/from San Francisco — has dropped up to 34%: Typical fares are in the $1,698 to $2,398 range, with a handful of days as low as $1,498 next January and February.
United Airlines
New York to/from Los Angeles — has dropped up to 30%: United has the lowest fares overall with a couple of days at $1,298 as far out as you can book. Their highest fares range from $2,248 to $4,011 for close in travel, and beyond that, fares range from $1,498 to $2,347.
New York to/from San Francisco — largely unchanged: Currently the lowest fares are about $1,798 on a bunch of random days as far out as you can book for travel mostly on Saturdays. Otherwise, fares range from $2,206 to $3,304.
The Bad News
Delta Air Lines
New York to/from Los Angeles — largely unchanged: This route has a couple of days in the $1,798 range for travel departing November through April, with the highest fares in the $2,398 to $2,898 range for close in travel. Otherwise fares range from $1,898 to $2,498.
New York to/from San Francisco — largely unchanged: Current fares as far out as you can book are in the $1,798 to $2,398 range and as high as $2,418.
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Interesting Fare Trends
We noticed there are more low-fare days when traveling West to East than East to West for close in travel on Delta. That’s also the case on American Airlines through February, and on United as far out as you can book.
The lowest fares on United are mostly for Saturday departures and Delta is typically the lowest on Fridays and Saturdays.
That’s fares, now let’s talk…
Miles
Domestic Business Class low-cost mileage rates have historically been around 20,000 miles one-way. In May 2021 they went up to 52,500, then they rose to between 60,000 and 70,000 miles each way in February 2022.
Now we’re starting to see lower mileage costs on American in the 26,500 to 35,000 range one-way – while United is at 73,000 and Delta is at a ridiculous 90,000.
New American Airlines Trends
- Presently, American Airlines is offering more low-cost transcon awards than we have recently seen over the last year, ranging from 26,500 to 35,000 each way to/from New York-Los Angeles and 29,500 to 34,000 each way to/from New York-San Francisco.
- We have seen a trend where American releases low-cost close in award space as low as 31,000 each way to/from New York-Los Angeles and 33,000 each way to/from New York-San Francisco.
- Presently, New York to/from Los Angeles there are more days with lower-cost award seats when traveling East to West versus West to East. More on the takeaway in a moment.
- Traveling to/from New York-San Francisco typically offers more days with lower cost award seats when compared with traveling to/from New York-Los Angeles.
- Typically the lowest cost award seats can be found on the first and last flight of the day (i.e. red-eyes and 6 a.m. flights).
- New York to San Francisco typically offers award seats available for travel on Friday through Sunday and Tuesdays and from San Francisco to New York on Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
- We have seen mileage costs as low as 20,500 when flying into John Wayne (SNA) versus Los Angeles (LAX).
- October through December are the highest cost travel times, ranging from 87,00 to 100,000 miles each way.
Delta Air Lines
Forget about flying Delta with miles! They don’t have anything reasonable. Mileage fares start in the 90,000 to 110,000 range one-way, which is around 1 cent a mile in value. As we always say, find another hobby rather than collecting SkyMiles. Stamps, beer cans, vinyl records…they’re all more lucrative.
At this rate, you can get three American one-way transcon tickets for close in travel for the price of one Delta one-way ticket.
United Airlines
You can also forget about flying United with miles. They start at around 73,000. Typically, the lowest cost awards can be found for 80,000 miles one-way. Again, you can get two low-cost American tickets for the cost of one United ticket.
Takeaways
- Consider checking availability on American Airlines close in if you hold a $2,000+ ticket, as explained in the iterative upgrade mindset.
- Divide your round-trip itinerary into two one-way tickets. This actually increases your odds of finding lower-cost award seats when using miles. (I can’t remember the last time I booked a round-trip.)
- Consider using miles for a one-way ticket when they are pricing low and paying cash for the other. In other words, mixed-currency trips are often the way to go.
In the meantime, here are some FCF midsummer value helpers for transcon tragics:
- Nine Stabs in the Dark to Beat High Transcon Prices
- Adding Hawaii using the “Hula Loophole”
- Domestic in-class upgrades for other domestic routes.
- Book a 2nd ticket and have a back-up plan
- Reduce, Reuse, Recycle: A Second Life for Your Canceled AA Tickets
