The Cost of Loyalty in the Lockdown-Fare Era

March 2021
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Allegiance to the brag? Loyalists are getting less, with up to $400 fare differences for the same route and cabin on domestic flights, elites should be shopping, not hoping.

Archibald Alec Leach became Cary Grant. Eric Arthur Blair became George Orwell. Marion Morrison became John Wayne. I’m almost positive Elite Status used to have a name like “Loyalty Stinks” but they changed it to make it sound better.

Elite Status is a constant tale of devaluing woe. And while this isn’t the first time we’ve had a crack at the elite system, it bears repeating right now because the difference between being an elite – and locked into just flying with that airline – and being a loyalty-free agent (able to go with the best value, or schedule, or both, on a per-trip basis) is particularly stark.

We’re seeing significant and inconsistent discrepancies in premium fares among the big three domestic carriers lately, which means many elites are paying way more than they might otherwise have to.

Add to that the temptation for elites to look to upgrade from coach to Business Class with "free elite upgrades." That’s a risk not worth taking right now when loyalty-free agents can simply shop around among the airlines – and often confirm First Class tickets (at the time of booking) to net tremendous, if not unprecedented, value.

Chart Toppers and Scrapers

This brings us to our chart below. It shows the highest and lowest premium class fare options for the big three U.S. carriers on a number of nonstop routes and the actual difference in $ and % terms.

It also shows the coach fare costs for those same high and low airlines in each case, and the cost per hour to upgrade from coach to Business. So in the first line, the Atlanta-Los Angeles round-trip in Business Class is $1,123 on Delta and only $723 on American. That’s a whopping $400 (55%) difference.

So, Delta loyalist, how do you feel about that extra 55% more you're paying than an American (or loyalty-free agent) flyer? I suspect it doesn’t make you feel as loyally elite as that status makes you feel.

Isn’t “getting bumped up” a key part of the elite allure? I admit, elite used to have the perks, but they’ve been whittled away by airline accountants and marketers. In the drive to cut costs and increase sales, there’s been a glut of low-cost premium fares across the board (a killer for elite upgrade availability). And on top of that, airlines started bundling and selling elite status perks to anyone, even non-elite members. In a way, everyone became an elite.

Shortcut to my whole point: loyalty stinks. Be a free agent and open up scores of travel opportunities.

Chart Revelations 

Here’s what the current fare data reveals for FCFers looking to cut to the chase. 
  • Covid lockdown fares are low so don’t risk an elite upgrade (not coming through). Shop around instead.
  • Delta is the current high-fare loser. Well, you’re actually the loser if you get stuck with the high fare. Delta, please turn off the light on your way out.
  • United is the current overall low-fare champ. Congratulations, United.
  • Don’t hold your breath on the these two staying as they are. In 2018, Delta was the high-fare loser. In 2019, American and Delta were low-fare winners while United was the high-fare loser. Now Delta is back to being the high-fare loser on domestic routes.
  • Transcontinental upgrade costs average around $53 per flight hour (Transcon/8+ hour R/T flights).
  • Shorter and mid-haul flight (2 to 8 hours R/T) upgrades cost on average around $57 per-flight hour.

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[["Non-Stop Route","Higher Cost Airline","Fare","Lower Cost Airline","Fare","Difference","Difference %"],["Atlanta - Los Angeles","Delta","$1,123","American","$723","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$400<\/span>","-36%"],["Atlanta - San Francisco","Delta","$1,067","United","$797","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$270<\/span>","-34%"],["Chicago - San Francisco","American","$803","United","$683","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$120<\/span>","-18%"],["New York - San Diego","Delta","$1,278","American","$893","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$385<\/span>","-43%"],["#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","United","$716","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$562<\/span>","-44%"],["Philadelphia - San Francisco","American","$1,136","United","$773","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$363<\/span>","-47%"],["Miami - Houston","American","$505","United","$377","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$128<\/span>","-34%"],["Los Angeles - Boston","Delta","$1,121","American","$729","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$392<\/span>","-35%"],["#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","United","$715","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$406<\/span>","-36%"],["San Francisco - Detroit","Delta","$965","United","$797","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$168<\/span>","-21%"],["Chicago - Phoenix","American","$785","United","$611","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$174<\/span>","-28%"],["Houston - Los Angeles","Delta","$666","American","$534","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$132<\/span>","-25%"],["#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","United","$515","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$151<\/span>","-29%"],["Ft. Lauderdale - New York","Delta","$515","United","$375","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$140<\/span>","-37%"],["Phoenix - Detroit","Delta","$811","American","$681","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$130<\/span>","-19%"],["Phoenix - New York","American","$953","United","$715","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$238<\/span>","-33%"],["Atlanta - Phoenix","Delta","$943","American","$813","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$130<\/span>","-16%"],["Los Angeles - Nashville","Delta","$838","American","$705","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$133<\/span>","-19%"],["Los Angeles - Orlando","Delta","$948","United","$719","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$150<\/span>","-21%"],["#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","American","$813","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$135<\/span>","-17%"],["Los Angeles - Raleigh","American","$909","Delta","$745","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$164<\/span>","-22%"],["Los Angeles - Indiana","American","$1,028","Delta","$715","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$313<\/span>","-44%"],["Charlotte - New York","United","$439","Delta","$344","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$110<\/span>","-32%"],["#rowspan#","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","American","$324","<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-$115<\/span>","-35%"]]