Delta’s elimination of premium seats on Transcon routes may be the beginning of the end.

“Atlanta — January 26, 2005 — Song, Delta Air Lines’ low-fare, high-style air service, announced today a major expansion, nearly doubling its service from New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport with the addition of five new destinations. Song is adding significant coast-to-coast service...as well as to San Juan and Aruba.”

Let’s call this press release excerpt a song and dance. Because while it’s all true, it has been crafted to mask a truth: Delta is eliminating premium seats on its longhaul domestic and Caribbean routes.

By June 1, 2005, Song is slated to grow by one third (as the press release later crows) with 12 Boeing 757s added to its current fleet of 36. What does that really mean? Delta’s First and Business Class on these routes will be history! That’s right. There will be NO PREMIUM SEATS on Delta from JFK to LA, San Francisco, Seattle, San Juan, and Aruba. On these routes, the airline will be flying the execrable B-757 (single aisle, 3 x 3 seating) on flights up to six hours long.

Perhaps Song should be renamed Dirge.

Domestic Premium Service Nearing Extinction?

I’m not being facetious. What we are seeing is the near-extinction of premium service within North America. Don’t believe me? Just ask one FCF subscriber in St. Louis who last August booked a special anniversary trip to Maui for travel this month. He woke up one morning and found out that his connecting two-and-ahalf-hour flight in First Class not only had a schedule change (which is common), but an equipment change (starting to be all too common). And it wasn’t to Ted either which would at least net Economy Plus seating with four to five more inches of leg room than normal economy. It was to a 50-seat, all-economy class CRJ — and there were no other options.

What’s more, I’ve just learned that Continental is yanking 20% of its First Class seats on B737-500 aircraft in order “to improve the economics of the aircraft,” according to the airline. During the transition from 10 to 8 seats, according to the airline, there will be some flights with only six First Class seats. The total number of aircraft to be downgraded: 63 (18% of the airline’s fleet). The cabin configuration of other aircraft are said to remain unchanged — but who knows how long that will last.

When you add these changes to US Airways latest move to pull service such as hot meals in First because it can't afford them, after already reducing the number of First Class seats on many aircraft last year, too, you can’t avoid the question: How long before most of the major domestic carriers pull premium service altogether?

While eliminating First Class from short-haul flights is arguably understandable, nothing shows the perilous state of America’s airlines more than the demise of premium transcon service — once the routes where airlines strutted their stuff. (To call Song “high style,” as in the above press release, shows a gross disrespect for the English language, not to mention the truth.) To be fair, though, not every airline is throwing in the transcon towel. United is gaining altitude, sort of, by testing a new service on transcon routes with Star Alliance partner Singapore Airlines’ International Business Class (Space Bed) seats in First Class and its own international Business Class seats in the middle cabin. However, it, too, is using the narrow-body B-757. Continental flies most long-haul domestic flights with B-737s and B-757s as well.

But Delta’s change is the canary in the coalmine for elites. The airline is investing in low-service service — and other major carriers are sure to file the same flight plan sooner or later, leaving no security for the loyal traveler who likes to stretch his legs on long flights. Some legacy carriers are so desperate that they’ll try anything, so get ready for some heavy chop. Here’s my take on what Delta Elites should do, and on how Delta’s abolition of premium transcon service will affect other carriers:

Medallion Elite Members on the East and West Coasts Flying Domestically

With no premium seats available for upgrade, now’s the time to change religion by using up your Medallion miles and starting over with another carrier.

Premium Fare Buyers

Those heavily discounted $499 one-way transcon fares are already hard to come by. From what I've seen in the airline’s computer, you often have to book 90+ days out for good availability. Two fewer Delta flights without premium seats takes 100+ premium seats out of daily LAX-NYC circulation, and with America West recently scrapping five of its seven transcon flights, the supply of premium seats overall has contracted sharply.

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• If you fly from New York on Delta to Europe: Stick with it if you want to — just fly partner Continental domestically to keep up your elite status. Although there is no reciprocal elite upgrading for you.
• Rethink your loyalty program. In fact, it’s time to rethink loyalty altogether. Get a card like the Amex Starwood Starpoints Card, which gives you access to multiple (30+) frequent flyer programs. Get your eggs out of just one basket.
• Forget about flying US carriers internationally. They’re mostly uncompetitive when it comes to service. Look to international carriers, which usually have much better seats. Earning miles with a credit card program, like Amex Starwood Starpoints, you can upgrade with many international carriers. And, if you need to earn an elite card with a domestic carrier, just fly with one of its partners that will get you there when flying internationally. For example, fly Singapore Airlines to Asia, but request mileage credit with partner United.
• Get ready for higher domestic premium fares. America West drove the premium transcon fare down to $499 in the first place; now that it has all but abandoned non-stop transcon service, look for fares to increase — especially since Delta’s new, First Class SimpliFares will have no effect in markets without premium seats.
• Accept the fact that it’s getting harder to win nowadays when booking premium domestic fares. You’ll have to book domestic fares far in advance to lock in the few seats available at the lower fare levels. The caveat, however, is that you’ll have to be prepared for an equipment change that takes your 1A seat from First Class to coach.

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Don’t be surprised if American’s special $499 fares go bye-bye altogether (they’re hard to actually confirm now anyway) as American will be the only wide-body service between New York and Los Angeles. (I never thought I would be writing that.)

Low-Tier and Many Mid-Tier Elites

Back of the bus for you. With more than 100 fewer premium seats per day on some routes, those free or low-cost elite upgrades are nothing more than a fond memory.

AAdvantage Members

You’re now at a Dis-AAdvantage since Delta has just handed American a bonus. Now that it’s the only wide-body game from JFK to the West Coast it will charge — and get — much higher fares. Its only competition into/out of JFK is United, but not everyone is going to go for a 757 over a 767.

International Premium Leisure

Delta's heavily discounted premium leisure fares have been a great way to make a comfortable connection to the carrier’s European routes. But with Delta’s connecting flights increasingly all-economy, those accustomed to the premium cabin will have to look elsewhere rather than fly half the trip in economy. (American, with its many low international premium leisure fares, looks like a winner here, too — since United doesn’t offer competitive fares to Europe. So, consider getting an AAdvantage card.) As for those of you who’ve already booked summer travel (June 1 or later) on a Delta flight that is downshifting — you’ve just landed in economy for the domestic leg.

And be careful what you wish for. Elites are now reaping the low-fare whirlwind.

How will you be affected? What will your new strategy be? Write me today at mr.upgrade@firstclassflyer.com.