Upgrade Economics 101, Part 10: FCF Deep Dive: United's Closeout Upgrade Availability Trend to Asia

March 2024
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Flying United’s Business Class to Asia Doesn’t Have to Karate Chop Your Budget


Traditionally, Business Class fares to Asia are high, hovering in altitudes of $5,600 to $8,500, and fares for close-in travel can be even higher, $12,000+.

What an unfortunate way to start a special report. But NOT if you’re “upgrade-open-minded,” or you have your bags-packed and ready at the front door for some grab-em-now upgrades.

Upgrade-open-minded folks tend to drive their own travel destiny, rather than hope for a lucky break at the gate. It’s more doable than you might think, and it can happen right up until flight time, even when you’ve got a “meh” ticket in your hand.

Make this your eleventh commandment:

It’s never too late to upgrade.

For ticket holders, that could mean flying at a better time and ditching that red eye. Perhaps it’s flying on a better day for your schedule when previously only certain days were available. It could even be flipping to a better airline, or the holy grail for us upgraders: flying in a better cabin for no extra price, or even less. Yes it happens, and I’ve done it many times.

For bags-packed travelers, mileage upgrades make a lot of sense. There’s less cash out of pocket, more inventory to choose from, fewer miles to spend — and you still earn miles. Lots of wins.

How’s your brinkmanship game? Do you think that making moves at the last minute is way too stressful? Last May we wrote about Anne and her experience with a last-minute upgrade for an Australian adventure. You can do this too, but you must be open to the possibility to begin with. That’s having an upgrade-open-mindset.

Close-in for the win

Fly the Friendly Upgrade Way

For United’s free mileage awards, advance bookers are looking at pricing in the 340,000- to 400,000-mile price range, round-trip. On occasion, we have seen free awards available for as low as 100,000 miles one-way within 10 days of travel, although admittedly, they are hit-or-miss, depending on the route.

Typically, we don’t see United upgrades available more than 14 days out. That's crucial intel. Upgradeable economy fares for close-in travel are generally in the $2,200 to $3,600 range round-trip, plus 30,000 miles and up to $600 co-pay, each way.

United is a points-to-miles transfer partner with Chase. Miles can also be purchased from United, which are typically 1.8 cents each when on sale. So, if you’re short on miles, you can top-up to 175,000 miles annually.

Sample Upgrade to Business Class Costs on United

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Sample Savings United Business Class published fare vs award mileage cost vs upgrade cost

Business Class Published Fare

The screenshot below shows the price NON-upgrade-minded travelers pay for the San Francisco-Osaka trip where an advance-purchase fare runs about $10,932. For the bags-packed traveler, that’ll cost you $13,431. That’s quite a Fuji-sized hit to the wallet.

Business Class Free Award Seat

Now look at the screenshot that follows for a free mileage award booking. Whether close to departure or far out, the lowest cost is 170,000 miles each way or 340,000 miles round-trip.

Upgrade From Economy to Business Class

And then you could consider a cash + miles option, upgrading from coach to Business Class. You pay $3,403 plus 60,000 miles. Again, upgrade-mindedness saves you an Emperor’s feast of miles and dollars.

When you consider a cash + miles option, upgrading from coach to Business Class is often the way to go. Although the co-pay is minimally less, if you purchase an upgradeable Premium Economy fare, it would cost you $800 more. Again, upgrade-mindedness saves you an Emperor’s feast of miles and dollars.

That deserves a stamp.

Our team studied Business Class upgrade availability trends over the last 30 days for routes to Asian cities with one to four seats on United Airlines. These trends fluctuate so always check in advance to see how things look.

We found nine routes with upgrade seat availability to Asia, from Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, to Tokyo, and from San Francisco to Beijing, Osaka, Seoul, and Taipei for an “upgrade-open-minded,” or bags-packed traveler.

United Business Class Upgrade Availability Trends

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Score with Closeout Availability Trends

Just like in sports, a lot can happen close to the end. I think it starts with perspective: Keep your mind open to possibilities, especially if you have a ticket in hand. What’s the downside? You use that ticket without an upgrade and c’est la vie. On the upside, you get an actual massive “tell everyone” seat upgrade that a closed mind would never have even considered.

Keep that in mind, and I’ll see you up front.

[["Route","Fare Including Taxes","Miles Required R/T","Co-Pay R/T","Regular Published Fare","Savings","#colspan#"],["Chicago-Tokyo","$2,482","\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n60,000","\n\n$900","$9,305","$5,923","64%"],["Houston-Tokyo","$3,193","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$12,485","$8,392","67%"],["Los Angeles-Tokyo","$2,443","#rowspan#","\n\n$1,200","$7,671","$4,028","53%"],["San Francisco-Beijing","$2,946","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$6,320","$2,174","34%"],["San Francisco-Osaka","$3,417","#rowspan#","$900","$11,432","$7,115","62%"],["San Francisco-Seoul","$2,718","#rowspan#","\n\n$1,200","$5,764","$1,846","32%"],["San Francisco-Taipei","$2,207","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$5,651","$2,244","40%"],["San Francisco-Tokyo","$3,616","#rowspan#","\n\n$900","$9,305","$4,789","51%"],["Washington, DC-Tokyo","$2,917","#rowspan#","#rowspan#","$11,334","$7,517","66%"]]
[["Route","Summary of Availability Trends"],["Chicago-Tokyo","Outbound up to four seats a handful of days; return one seat, a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days."],["Houston-Tokyo","Outbound up to four seats a handful of days; return up to two seats, a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days."],["Los Angeles-Tokyo","Outbound up to two seats a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days; return up to four seats a handful of days."],["San Francisco-Beijing","Outbound up to four seats more than a handful of days; return up to two seats more than a handful of days, up to four seats a handful of days."],["San Francisco-Osaka","Outbound up to four seats a handful of days; return up to two seats more than a handful of days, up to four seats a handful of days."],["San Francisco-Seoul","Outbound one seat a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days; return up to four seats a handful of days."],["San Francisco-Taipei","Outbound up to two seats a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days; return up to four seats a handful of days."],["San Francisco-Tokyo","Outbound up to two seats a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days; return up to four seats a handful of days."],["Washington, DC-Tokyo","Outbound up to four seats a handful of days; return up to two seats, a handful of days, up to four seats fewer than a handful of days."]]
<small>*Handful 4-8 days in the month.</small>